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lectures/robustness.md

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@@ -85,7 +85,7 @@ import quantecon as qe
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```
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(rb_vec)=
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### Sets of Models Imply Sets Of Values
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### Sets of models imply sets of values
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Our "robust" decision-maker wants to know how well a given rule will work when he does not *know* a single transition law $\ldots$.
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This will involve crafting a *skinnier* set at the cost of a lower *level* (at least for low values of entropy).
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### Inspiring Video
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### Inspiring video
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If you want to understand more about why one serious quantitative researcher is interested in this approach, we recommend [Lars Peter Hansen's Nobel lecture](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2013/hansen/lecture/).
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### Other References
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### Other references
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Our discussion in this lecture is based on
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* {cite}`HansenSargent2000`
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* {cite}`HansenSargent2008`
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## The Model
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## The model
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For simplicity, we present ideas in the context of a class of problems with linear transition laws and quadratic objective functions.
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Soon we'll quantify the quality of a model specification in terms of the maximal size of the discounted sum $\sum_{t=0}^{\infty} \beta^{t+1}w_{t+1}' w_{t+1}$.
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## Constructing More Robust Policies
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## Constructing more robust policies
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If our agent takes $\{ w_t \}$ as a given deterministic sequence, then, drawing on ideas in earlier lectures on dynamic programming, we can anticipate Bellman equations such as
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So bigger $\theta$ is implicitly associated with smaller distortion sequences $\{w_t \}$.
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### Analyzing the Bellman Equation
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### Analyzing the Bellman equation
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So what does $J$ in {eq}`rb_wcb0` look like?
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Conversely, smaller $\theta$ is associated with greater fear of model misspecification and greater concern for robustness.
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## Robustness as Outcome of a Two-Person Zero-Sum Game
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## Robustness as outcome of a two-person zero-sum game
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What we have done above can be interpreted in terms of a two-person zero-sum game in which $\hat F, \hat K$ are Nash equilibrium objects.
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We begin with agent 2's problem.
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### Agent 2's Problem
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### Agent 2's problem
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Agent 2
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Here $x_t$ is given by {eq}`rob_lomf` --- which in this case becomes $x_{t+1} = (A - B F + CK(F, \theta)) x_t$.
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### Using Agent 2's Problem to Construct Bounds on Value Sets
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### Using Agent 2's problem to construct bounds on value sets
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#### The Lower Bound
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#### The lower bound
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Define the minimized object on the right side of problem {eq}`rb_a2o` as $R_\theta(x_0, F)$.
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This procedure sweeps out a set of separating hyperplanes indexed by different values for the Lagrange multiplier $\theta$.
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```
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#### The Upper Bound
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#### The upper bound
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To construct an *upper bound* we use a very similar procedure.
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* Compute the upper bound on the value function $V_{\tilde \theta}(x_0, F) + \tilde \theta \ {\rm ent}$ and plot it against ${\rm ent}$.
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* Repeat the preceding three steps for a range of values of $\tilde \theta$ to trace out the upper bound.
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#### Reshaping the Set of Values
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#### Reshaping the set of values
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Now in the interest of *reshaping* these sets of values by choosing $F$, we turn to agent 1's problem.
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### Agent 1's Problem
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### Agent 1's problem
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Now we turn to agent 1, who solves
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it by $\tilde F$.
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### Nash Equilibrium
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### Nash equilibrium
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Clearly, the $\tilde F$ we have obtained depends on $K$, which, in agent 2's problem,
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depended on an initial policy $F$.
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A sketch of the proof is given in {ref}`the appendix <rb_appendix>`.
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## The Stochastic Case
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## The stochastic case
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Now we turn to the stochastic case, where the sequence $\{w_t\}$ is treated as an IID sequence of random vectors.
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This penalty term plays a role analogous to the one played by the deterministic penalty $\theta w'w$ in {eq}`rb_wcb0`, since it discourages large deviations from the benchmark.
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### Solving the Model
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### Solving the model
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The maximization problem in {eq}`rb_wcb1` appears highly nontrivial --- after all,
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we are maximizing over an infinite dimensional space consisting of the entire set of densities.
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Note that the mean of the worst-case shock distribution is equal to the same worst-case $w_{t+1}$ as in the earlier deterministic setting.
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### Computing Other Quantities
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### Computing other quantities
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Before turning to implementation, we briefly outline how to compute several other quantities of interest.
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#### Worst-Case Value of a Policy
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#### Worst-case value of a policy
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One thing we will be interested in doing is holding a policy fixed and
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computing the discounted loss associated with that policy.

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