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environment.yml

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- sphinxcontrib-youtube==1.1.0
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- sphinx-togglebutton==0.3.1
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# Sandpit Requirements
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<<<<<<< HEAD
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- quantecon
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- libsass
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=======
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- array-to-latex
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- PuLP
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- cvxpy
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- cvxopt
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- cylp
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- prettytable
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lectures/calvo.md

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@@ -112,11 +112,7 @@ the actual rate of inflation.
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(When there is no uncertainty, an assumption of **rational expectations** simplifies to **perfect foresight**).
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(See {cite}`Sargent77hyper` for a rational expectations version of the model when there is uncertainty.)
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=======
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(See {cite}`Sargent77hyper` for a rational expectations version of the model in which there is uncertainty)
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(See {cite}`Sargent77hyper` for a rational expectations version of the model when there is uncertainty)
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Subtracting the demand function at time $t$ from the demand
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function at $t+1$ gives:
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x_{t+1} = A x_t + B \mu_t
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```
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We write the model in the state-space form {eq}`eq_old4` even though $\theta_0$ is to be determined by our model and so is not an initial condition
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We write the model in the state-space form {eq}`eq_old4` even though $\theta_0$ is to be determined and so is not an initial condition
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as it ordinarily would be in the state-space model described in [Linear Quadratic Control](https://python-intro.quantecon.org/lqcontrol.html).
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We write the model in the form {eq}`eq_old4` because we want to apply an approach described in {doc}`Stackelberg problems <dyn_stack>`.
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We assume that a benevolent government believes that a representative household's utility of real balances at
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Assume that a representative household's utility of real balances at
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time $t$ is:
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```{math}
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(If we set parameters so that $\theta^* = \log(\beta)$, then we can
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regard a recommendation to set $\theta_t = \theta^*$ as a "poor
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man's Friedman rule" that attains Milton Friedman's **optimal quantity of money**.)
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man's Friedman rule" that attains Milton Friedman's **optimal quantity of money**)
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Via equation {eq}`eq_old3`, a government plan
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$\vec \mu = \{\mu_t \}_{t=0}^\infty$ leads to an equilibrium
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## Structure
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The following structure is induced by private agents'
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behavior as summarized by the demand function for money {eq}`eq_old1` that leads to equation {eq}`eq_old3`.
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It tells how future settings of $\mu$ affect the current value of $\theta$.
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behavior as summarized by the demand function for money {eq}`eq_old1` that leads to equation {eq}`eq_old3` that tells how future
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settings of $\mu$ affect the current value of $\theta$.
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Equation {eq}`eq_old3` maps a **policy** sequence of money growth rates
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$\vec \mu =\{\mu_t\}_{t=0}^\infty \in L^2$ into an inflation sequence
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To make $\vec \mu$ endogenous, we require a theory of government
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decisions.
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## Intertemporal Structure
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## Intertemporal Influences
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Criterion function {eq}`eq_old7` and the constraint system {eq}`eq_old4` exhibit the following
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structure:
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household's one-period utilities at all dates
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$s = 0, 1, \ldots, t$.
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This structure sets the stage for the emergence of a time-inconsistent
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That settings of $\mu$ at one date affect household utilities at
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earlier dates sets the stage for the emergence of a time-inconsistent
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optimal government plan under a Ramsey (also called a Stackelberg) timing protocol.
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We'll study outcomes under a Ramsey timing protocol below.
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We consider four models of policymakers that differ in
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- what a policymaker is allowed to choose, either a sequence
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- what a policymaker is allowed to choose, either a sequence
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$\vec \mu$ or just a single period $\mu_t$.
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- when a policymaker chooses, either at time $0$ or at times
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- when a policymaker chooses, either at time $0$ or at times
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$t \geq 0$.
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- what a policymaker assumes about how its choice of $\mu_t$
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affects private agents' expectations about earlier and later
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To interpret this system, think of the sequence
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$\{\theta_t\}_{t=0}^\infty$ as a sequence of
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synthetic **promised inflation rates**.
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These are just computational devices for
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synthetic **promised inflation rates** that are just computational devices for
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generating a sequence $\vec\mu$ of money growth rates that are to
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be substituted into equation {eq}`eq_old3` to form actual rates of inflation.
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into equation {eq}`eq_old3`, we obtain the same sequence $\vec \theta$
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generated by the system {eq}`eq_old9`.
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(Here an application of the Big $K$, little $k$ trick could once again be enlightening.)
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(Here an application of the Big $K$, little $k$ trick could once again be enlightening)
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Thus, our construction of a Ramsey plan guarantees that **promised
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inflation** equals **actual inflation**.
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### Multiple roles of $\theta_t$
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The inflation rate $\theta_t$ plays three roles simultaneously:
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The inflation rate $\theta_t$ that appears in the system {eq}`eq_old9` and
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equation {eq}`eq_old3` plays three roles simultaneously:
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- In equation {eq}`eq_old3`, $\theta_t$ is the actual rate of inflation
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between $t$ and $t+1$.
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## A Constrained-to-a-Constant-Growth-Rate Ramsey Government
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We now consider a peculiar model of optimal government behavior.
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We now consider the following peculiar model of optimal government behavior.
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We have created this model in order to highlight an aspect of an optimal government policy associated with its time inconsistency,
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## Markov Perfect Governments
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We now alter the timing protocol by considering a sequence of
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We now change the timing protocol by considering a sequence of
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government policymakers, the time $t$ representative of which
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chooses $\mu_t$ and expects all future governments to set
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$\mu_{t+j} = \bar \mu$.
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This assumption mirrors an assumption made in a different setting [Markov Perfect Equilibrium](https://python-intro.quantecon.org/markov_perf.html).
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A government policymaker at $t$ believes that $\bar \mu$ is
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Further, a government policymaker at $t$ believes that $\bar \mu$ is
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unaffected by its choice of $\mu_t$.
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The time $t$ rate of inflation is then:
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\bar \mu = - \frac{\alpha a_1}{\alpha^2 a_2 + (1+\alpha)c}
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$$
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## Equilibrium Outcomes for Three Models
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## Equilibrium Outcomes for Three Models of Government Policy Making
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Below we compute sequences $\{ \theta_t,\mu_t \}$ under a Ramsey
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plan and compare these with the constant levels of $\theta$ and
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### Meaning of Time Inconsistency
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In settings in which governments actually choose sequentially, many economists
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regard a time inconsistent plan as controversial because of the incentives to
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deviate that are presented along the plan.
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regard a time inconsistent plan implausible because of the incentives to
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deviate that occur along the plan.
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A way to summarize this *defect* in a Ramsey plan is to say that it
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is not credible because there endure incentives for policymakers
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This is a model in which
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- the government chooses $\{\mu_t\}_{t=0}^\infty$ not once and
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- The government chooses $\{\mu_t\}_{t=0}^\infty$ not once and
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for all at $t=0$ but chooses to set $\mu_t$ at time $t$, not before.
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- private agents' forecasts of
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$\{\mu_{t+j+1}, \theta_{t+j+1}\}_{j=0}^\infty$ respond to

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