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Tom's June 14 edits of Knowing forecasts lecture
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lectures/knowing_forecasts_of_others.md

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@@ -1513,23 +1513,23 @@ problem of extracting a signal from equilibrium prices that decision
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makers face in Townsend’s model.
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[^footnote0]: {cite}`Pearlman_Sargent2005` verified this assertion using a different tactic, namely, by constructing
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analytic formulas an equilibrium under the incomplete
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analytic formulas for an equilibrium under the incomplete
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information structure and confirming that they match the pooling equilibrium formulas derived here.
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[^footnote1]: See {cite}`ahms` for an account of invariant subspace methods.
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[^footnote2]: See {cite}`ahms` for a discussion
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of the information assumptions needed to create a situation
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in which higher order beliefs appear in equilibrium decision rules. The way
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to read our findings in light of {cite}`ams` is that Townsend's
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section 8 model has too few sources of random shocks relative
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to sources of signals to permit higher order beliefs to
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[^footnote2]: See {cite}`ams` for a discussion
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of information assumptions needed to create a situation
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in which higher order beliefs appear in equilibrium decision rules. A way
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to read our findings in light of {cite}`ams` is that, relative
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to the number of signals agents observe, Townsend's
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section 8 model has too few random shocks to get higher order beliefs to
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play a role.
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[^footnote3]: See {cite}`Sargent1987`, especially
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chapters IX and XIV, for the principles that guide solving some roots backwards and others forwards.
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chapters IX and XIV, for principles that guide solving some roots backwards and others forwards.
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[^footnote4]: As noted {cite}`Sargent1987`, this difference equation is the Euler equation for
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[^footnote4]: As noted by {cite}`Sargent1987`, this difference equation is the Euler equation for
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a planning problem that maximizes the discounted sum of consumer plus
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producer surplus.
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