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lectures/cons_news.md

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@@ -102,7 +102,7 @@ This lecture can be regarded as an introduction to **invertibility** issues th
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the analysis of **fiscal foresight** by Eric Leeper, Todd Walker, and Susan Yang {cite}`Leeper_Walker_Yang`, as well
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as in chapter 4 of {cite}`sargent1991observable`.
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## Two Representations of One Nonfinancial Income Process
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## Two representations of one nonfinancial income process
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We study consequences of endowing a
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consumer with one of two alternative representations for the change
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Alternatively, we can obtain these formulas via the classical filtering theory
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described in {doc}`this lecture <classical_filtering>`.
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## News Shocks and Less Informative Shocks
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## News shocks and less informative shocks
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Representation {eq}`eqn_1` is cast in terms of a **news shock**
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$\epsilon_{t+1}$ that represents a shock to nonfinancial income
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$d_a(\beta) = \frac{1 -\beta^2}{1 -\beta } = (1 + \beta)$, another
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fact that will be important below.
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## Representation of $\epsilon_t$ Shock in Terms of Future $y_t$
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## Representation of $\epsilon_t$ shock in terms of future $y_t$
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Notice that reprentation {eq}`eqn_1`, namely, $y_{t+1} - y_t = -\beta^{-1} \epsilon_t + \epsilon_{t+1}$
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implies the linear difference equation
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Thus, $\epsilon_t$ **exactly** reveals the gap between $y_t$ and $E [ y_t | y^t_+]$.
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## Representation in Terms of $a_t$ Shocks
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## Representation in terms of $a_t$ shocks
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Next notice that representation {eq}`eqn_2`, namely, $y_{t+1} - y_t = -
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\beta a_t + a_{t+1}$ implies the linear difference
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E [ y_{t+1} | y^t ] = (1-\beta) \sum_{j=0}^\infty \beta^j y_{t-j}
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$$
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## Permanent Income Consumption-Smoothing Model
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## Permanent income consumption-smoothing model
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When we computed optimal consumption-saving policies for our two
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representations {eq}`eqn_1` and {eq}`eqn_2` by using formulas obtained with the difference equation
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The behavior of the better informed consumer sharply illustrates the behavior predicted in a classic
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Ricardian equivalence experiment.
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## State Space Representations
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## State space representations
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We now cast our representations {eq}`eqn_1` and {eq}`eqn_2`, respectively, in terms of the following two state
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space systems:
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plt.legend()
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```
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## Simulating Income Process and Two Associated Shock Processes
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## Simulating income process and two associated shock processes
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We now form a **single** $\{y_t\}_{t=0}^T$ realization
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that we will use to simulate decisions associated
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two consumers having **identical** incomes at each date but at each date
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having **different** information about their future incomes.
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## Calculating Innovations in Another Way
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## Calculating innovations in another way
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Here we use formula {eq}`eqn_3` above to compute $a_{t+1}$ as a function
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of the history
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We can verify that we recover the same $\{a_t\}$ sequence
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computed earlier.
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## Another Invertibility Issue
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## Another invertibility issue
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This {doc}`quantecon lecture <hs_invertibility_example>` contains another example of a shock-invertibility issue that is endemic
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to the LQ permanent income or consumption smoothing model.

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