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FIX: minor adjustments for latex builder
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.gitignore

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lectures/.DS_Store

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lectures/un_insure.md

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@@ -3,10 +3,8 @@ jupytext:
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text_representation:
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extension: .md
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format_name: myst
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format_version: 0.13
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jupytext_version: 1.13.4
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kernelspec:
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display_name: Python 3 (ipykernel)
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display_name: Python 3
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language: python
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name: python3
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---
@@ -57,7 +55,7 @@ employed.
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The probability
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of finding a job is $p(a)$ where $p$ is an increasing, strictly concave,
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and twice differentiable function of $a$ that satisfies
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and twice differentiable function of $a$ that satisfies
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$p(a) \in [0,1]$ for $a \geq 0$, $p(0)=0$.
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The consumption good is nonstorable.
@@ -71,13 +69,13 @@ smoothing over time and across states.
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Once a worker has found a job, he is beyond the planner's grasp.
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* This is Shavell and Weiss's assumption, but not Hopenhayn and Nicolini's.
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* Hopenhayn and Nicolini allow the unemployment insurance agency to
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* This is Shavell and Weiss's assumption, but not Hopenhayn and Nicolini's.
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* Hopenhayn and Nicolini allow the unemployment insurance agency to
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impose history-dependent taxes on previously unemployed workers.
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* Since there is no incentive problem after the worker has found
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* Since there is no incentive problem after the worker has found
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a job, it is optimal for the agency to provide an employed worker with
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a constant level of consumption.
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* Hence, Hopenhayn and Nicolini's insurance agency imposes
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* Hence, Hopenhayn and Nicolini's insurance agency imposes
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a permanent per-period history-dependent tax on a previously
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unemployed but presently employed worker.
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@@ -98,9 +96,9 @@ be $u(c)-a = u(w)$ forever.
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Therefore,
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$$ V^e = {u(w) \over (1-\beta)} .
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$$
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V^e = {u(w) \over (1-\beta)} .
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$$ (eq:hugo2)
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% \EQN hugo2
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Now let $V^u$ be the expected discounted present value of utility for an
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unemployed worker who chooses consumption, effort pair $(c,a)$
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V^u = \max_{a \geq 0} \biggl\{ u(0) - a + \beta \left[
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p(a) V^e + (1-p(a)) V^u \right] \biggr\} .
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$$ (eq:hugo3)
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%EQN hugo3
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The first-order condition for a maximum is
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$$
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\beta p'(a) \left[V^e - V^u \right] \leq 1 ,
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$$ (eq:hugo4)
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%\EQN hugo4
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with equality if $a>0$.
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@@ -134,18 +130,18 @@ Equations {eq}`eq:hugo3`
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form the basis for
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an iterative algorithm for computing $V^u = V_{\rm aut}$.
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* Let $V^u_j$ be
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* Let $V^u_j$ be
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the estimate of $V_{\rm aut}$ at the $j$th iteration.
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* Use this value
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* Use this value
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in equation {eq}`eq:hugo4` and solve
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for an estimate of effort $a_j$.
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* Use this value in a version of equation
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* Use this value in a version of equation
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{eq}`eq:hugo3` with $V^u_j$ on the right side
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to compute $V^u_{j+1}$.
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* Iterate to convergence.
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* Iterate to convergence.
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### Unemployment Insurance with Full Information
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@@ -194,7 +190,7 @@ $$ (eq:hugo5)
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where minimization is subject to the promise-keeping constraint
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$$
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V \leq u(c) - a + \beta
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V \leq u(c) - a + \beta
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\left\{ p(a) V^e + [1-p(a)] V^u \right\}.
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$$ (eq:hugo6)
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@@ -220,11 +216,11 @@ conditions with
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respect to $c, a$, and $V^u$, respectively, are
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$$
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\begin{align} \theta & = {1 \over u'(c)}\,, \cr
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\begin{aligned} \theta & = {1 \over u'(c)}\,, \cr
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C(V^u) & = \theta \left[ {1 \over \beta p'(a)} -
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(V^e - V^u) \right]\,, \cr
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C'(V^u) & = \theta\,.
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\end{align}
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\end{aligned}
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$$ (eq:hugo7)
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The envelope condition $C'(V) = \theta$ and the third equation
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spell.
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Thus, the unemployed worker's consumption $c$ and search effort $a$ are both fully smoothed
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during the unemployment
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spell.
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during the unemployment spell.
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But
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the worker's consumption is not smoothed across states of
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But the worker's consumption is not smoothed across states of
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employment and unemployment unless $V=V^e$.
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### The incentive problem
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The worker is free to choose $a$, which puts expression {eq}`eq:hugo4`, the worker's first-order condition under autarky,
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back in the picture.
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* We are assuming that the worker's
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* We are assuming that the worker's
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best response to the unemployment insurance arrangement is
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completely characterized by the first-order condition {eq}`eq:hugo4`,
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an instance of the so-called first-order approach to incentive problems.
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respect to $c, a$, and $V^u$, respectively, are
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$$
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\begin{align} \theta & = {1 \over u'(c)}\,, \cr
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\begin{aligned} \theta & = {1 \over u'(c)}\,, \cr
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C(V^u) & = \theta \left[ {1 \over \beta p'(a)} - (V^e - V^u) \right]
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\,-\, \eta {p''(a) \over p'(a)} (V^e - V^u) \cr
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& = \,- \eta {p''(a) \over p'(a)} (V^e - V^u) \,, \cr
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C'(V^u) & = \theta \,-\, \eta {p'(a) \over 1-p(a)}\, ,
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\end{align}
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\end{aligned}
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$$ (eq:hugo8)
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where the second equality in the second equation in {eq}`eq:hugo8` follows from strict equality
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represent condition {eq}`eq:hugo4` as
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$$
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V^u \geq V^e - [\beta p'(a)]^{-1},
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V^u \geq V^e - [\beta p'(a)]^{-1},
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$$
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with equality if $ a > 0$.
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Our strategy involves finding a function $C(V)$ -- the expected cost of giving the worker value $V$ -- that satisfies the Bellman equation:
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$$
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C(V) = \min_{c,a,V^u} \{c + \beta\left[1-p(a)\right]C(V^u)\}
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C(V) = \min_{c,a,V^u} \{c + \beta\left[1-p(a)\right]C(V^u)\}
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$$ (eq:yad3)
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To solve this model, notice that in equations {eq}`eq:hugo21` and {eq}`eq:hugo22`, we have analytical solutions of $c$ and $a$ in terms of (at most) promised value $V$ and $V^u$ (and other parameters).
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There is a **carrot-and-stick**
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aspect to the replacement rate and search effort schedules:
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* the **carrot** occurs in the forms of high compensation and low search
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* the **carrot** occurs in the forms of high compensation and low search
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effort early in an unemployment spell.
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* the **stick** occurs in the low compensation and high effort later in
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* the **stick** occurs in the low compensation and high effort later in
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the spell.
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We shall encounter a related carrot-and-stick feature in our other lectures about dynamic programming squared.

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