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lectures/calvo.md

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from IPython.display import display, Math
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```
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## Model Components
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## Model components
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There is no uncertainty.
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U(-\alpha \theta_t) = u_0 + u_1 (-\alpha \theta_t) -\frac{u_2}{2}(-\alpha \theta_t)^2 .
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$$ (eq_old5a)
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## Friedman's Optimal Rate of Deflation
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## Friedman's optimal rate of deflation
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According to {eq}`eq_old5a`, the ``bliss level`` of real balances is $\frac{u_1}{u_2}$ and the inflation rate that attains it is
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Milton Friedman assumed that the taxes that government imposes to collect money at rate $\mu_t$ do not distort economic decisions, e.g., they are lump-sum taxes.
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## Calvo's Distortion
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## Calvo's distortion
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The starting point of Calvo {cite}`Calvo1978` and Chang {cite}`chang1998credible`
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is that lump sum taxes are not available.
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decisions will make $\vec \mu$ endogenous, i.e., a theoretical **output** instead of an **input**.
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### Intertemporal Aspects
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### Intertemporal aspects
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Criterion function {eq}`eq_old7` and the constraint system {eq}`eq_old4` exhibit the following
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structure:
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We'll also study outcomes under other timing protocols.
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## Three Timing Protocols
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## Three timing protocols
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We consider three models of government policy making that differ in
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```
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## Note on Dynamic Programming Squared
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## Note on dynamic programming squared
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We'll begin with the timing protocol associated with a Ramsey plan and deploy
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an application of what we nickname **dynamic programming squared**.
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A value $\theta$ from one Bellman equation appears as an argument of a second Bellman equation for another value $v$.
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## A Ramsey Planner
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## A Ramsey planner
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A Ramsey planner chooses
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$\{\mu_t, \theta_t\}_{t=0}^\infty$ to maximize {eq}`eq_old7`
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\theta_0 = \theta_0^R = - \frac{P_{21}}{P_{22}}
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$$
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## Representation of Ramsey Plan
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## Representation of Ramsey plan
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The preceding calculations indicate that we can represent a Ramsey plan
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$\vec \mu$ recursively with the following system created in the spirit of Chang {cite}`chang1998credible`:
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is the telltale sign of the Ramsey plan's **time inconsistency**.
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## Constrained-to-Constant-Growth-Rate Ramsey Plan
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## Constrained-to-constant-growth-rate Ramsey plan
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We can use brute force to create a government plan that **is** time consistent, i.e., that is a time-invariant function of time.
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Obviously, our constrained-to-constant $\mu$
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Ramsey planner **must** must choose a plan that is time consistent.
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## Markov Perfect Governments
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## Markov perfect governments
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To generate an alternative model of time-consistent government decision making,
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we assume another timing protocol.
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* we equate $\mu_t = \mu$ only *after* we have computed a time $t$ government's first-order condition for $\mu_t$.
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(compute_lq)=
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## Outcomes under Three Timing Protocols
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## Outcomes under three timing protocols
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We want to compare outcome sequences $\{ \theta_t,\mu_t \}$ under three timing protocols associated with
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In some subsequent calculations, we'll use our Python code to study how gaps between
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these outcome vary depending on parameters such as the cost parameter $c$ and the discount factor $\beta$.
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## Ramsey Planner's Value Function
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## Ramsey planner's value function
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The next code plots the Ramsey Planner's value function $J(\theta)$ as well as the value function
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of a constrained Ramsey planner who must choose a constant
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## Perturbing Model Parameters
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## Perturbing model parameters
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Now let's present some graphs that teach us how outcomes change when we assume different values of $\beta$
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We leave it to the reader to explore consequences of other constellations of parameter values.
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### Implausibility of Ramsey Plan
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### Implausibility of Ramsey plan
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Many economists regard a time inconsistent plan as implausible because they question the plausibility of timing protocol in which a plan for setting a sequence of policy variables is chosen once-and-for-all at time $0$.
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* A Markov perfect equilibrium plan is constructed to insure that a sequence of government policymakers who choose sequentially do not want to deviate from it.
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### Ramsey Plan Strikes Back
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### Ramsey plan strikes back
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Research by Abreu {cite}`Abreu`, Chari and Kehoe {cite}`chari1990sustainable`
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{cite}`stokey1989reputation`, and Stokey {cite}`Stokey1991` described conditions under which a Ramsey plan can be rescued from the complaint that it is not credible.

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