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lectures/additive_functionals.md

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from scipy.stats import norm, lognorm
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```
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## A Particular Additive Functional
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## A particular additive functional
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{cite}`Hansen_2012_Eca` describes a general class of additive functionals.
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The nonstationary random process $\{y_t\}_{t=0}^\infty$ displays
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systematic but random *arithmetic growth*.
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### Linear State-Space Representation
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### Linear state-space representation
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A convenient way to represent our additive functional is to use a [linear state space system](https://python-intro.quantecon.org/linear_models.html).
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* the green one for the stationary component $s_t$ converges to a
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constant band
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### Associated Multiplicative Functional
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### Associated multiplicative functional
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Where $\{y_t\}$ is our additive functional, let $M_t = \exp(y_t)$.
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Let's see what happens when we set $T = 12000$ instead of $150$.
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### Peculiar Large Sample Property
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### Peculiar large sample property
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Hansen and Sargent {cite}`Hans_Sarg_book` (ch. 8) describe the following two properties of the martingale component
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$\widetilde M_t$ of the multiplicative decomposition
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The purple 95 percent frequency coverage interval collapses around zero, illustrating the second property.
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## More About the Multiplicative Martingale
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## More about the multiplicative martingale
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Let's drill down and study probability distribution of the multiplicative martingale $\{\widetilde M_t\}_{t=0}^\infty$ in
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more detail.
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It follows that $\log {\widetilde M}_t \sim {\mathcal N} ( -\frac{t H \cdot H}{2}, t H \cdot H )$ and that consequently ${\widetilde M}_t$ is log normal.
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### Simulating a Multiplicative Martingale Again
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### Simulating a multiplicative martingale again
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Next, we want a program to simulate the likelihood ratio process $\{ \tilde{M}_t \}_{t=0}^\infty$.
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Here is code that accomplishes these tasks.
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### Sample Paths
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### Sample paths
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Let's write a program to simulate sample paths of $\{ x_t, y_{t} \}_{t=0}^{\infty}$.
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* Enough mass moves toward the right tail to keep $E \widetilde M_T = 1$
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even as most mass in the distribution of $\widetilde M_T$ collapses around $0$.
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### Multiplicative Martingale as Likelihood Ratio Process
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### Multiplicative martingale as likelihood ratio process
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[This lecture](https://python.quantecon.org/likelihood_ratio_process.html) studies **likelihood processes**
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and **likelihood ratio processes**.

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