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Add student loan repayment calibration targets #253

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7 changes: 6 additions & 1 deletion policyengine_uk_data/storage/tax_benefit.csv
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -43,4 +43,9 @@ vat,gbp-bn,obr_march_2024_efo,,,,,159.7,168.9,170.3,178.8,186.6,193.9,201.7,209.
winter_fuel_allowance,gbp-bn,obr_march_2024_efo,2.0,2.0,2.0,2.0,2.0,2.0,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3
private_school_students,person-k,obr_march_2024_efo,557,557,557,557,557,557,557,557,557,557,557,
salary_sacrifice_employee_ni_relief,gbp-bn,spp_ni_relief_2023,,,,,,,1.2,1.24,1.28,1.32,1.36,1.40
salary_sacrifice_employer_ni_relief,gbp-bn,spp_ni_relief_2023,,,,,,,2.9,3.0,3.1,3.2,3.3,3.4
salary_sacrifice_employer_ni_relief,gbp-bn,spp_ni_relief_2023,,,,,,,2.9,3.0,3.1,3.2,3.3,3.4
student_loan_repayment,gbp-bn,slc_2024_25,,,,,,,5.6,5.8,6.0,6.2,6.4,6.6
student_loan_repayment_england,gbp-bn,slc_2024_25,,,,,,,5.0,5.2,5.4,5.6,5.8,6.0
student_loan_repayment_scotland,gbp-bn,slc_2024_25,,,,,,,0.203,0.21,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.25
student_loan_repayment_wales,gbp-bn,slc_2024_25,,,,,,,0.229,0.24,0.25,0.26,0.27,0.28
student_loan_repayment_northern_ireland,gbp-bn,slc_2024_25,,,,,,,0.182,0.19,0.20,0.21,0.22,0.23
18 changes: 18 additions & 0 deletions policyengine_uk_data/utils/loss.py
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Expand Up @@ -164,6 +164,24 @@ def pe_count(*variables):
# Not strictly from the OBR but from the 2024 Independent Schools Council census. OBR will be using that.
df["obr/private_school_students"] = pe("attends_private_school")

# Student loan repayments from SLC statistics
# https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/student-loans-in-england-2024-to-2025
# Total repayments: ~£5.6bn UK total, broken down by country
student_loan_repayment = pe("student_loan_repayment")
df["obr/student_loan_repayment"] = student_loan_repayment
df["obr/student_loan_repayment_england"] = student_loan_repayment * (
country == "ENGLAND"
)
df["obr/student_loan_repayment_scotland"] = student_loan_repayment * (
country == "SCOTLAND"
)
df["obr/student_loan_repayment_wales"] = student_loan_repayment * (
country == "WALES"
)
df["obr/student_loan_repayment_northern_ireland"] = student_loan_repayment * (
country == "NORTHERN_IRELAND"
)

# Salary sacrifice NI relief - SPP estimates £4.1bn total (£1.2bn employee + £2.9bn employer)
# Calculate relief via counterfactual: what additional NI would be paid if SS became income
ss_contributions = sim.calculate(
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