Add --use-tob flag for TOB revenue calibration #460
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Adds calibration targets for Taxation of Benefits (TOB) revenue: - OASDI TOB: tob_revenue_oasdi (tier 1 taxation) - HI TOB: tob_revenue_medicare_hi (tier 2 taxation) Changes: - Add load_oasdi_tob_projections() and load_hi_tob_projections() to ssa_data.py - Add TOB constraint parameters to calibration.py - Add --use-tob CLI flag to run_household_projection.py - Clean hi_tob_billions_nominal_usd column in social_security_aux.csv - Update README.md documentation Closes #459 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
Document source URLs and file details for: - SSA 2025 OASDI Trustees Report (SingleYearTRTables_TR2025.xlsx) - CMS 2025 Medicare Trustees Report (tr2025-tables-figures.zip) 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
Shows "H6 reform not active until 2045" for years before the reform takes effect. 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Add 'calibration' optional dependency group for samplics package - Improve error message when samplics not installed for GREG calibration - Add debug output showing negative weight count and magnitude during calibration 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Summary
--use-tobflag to enable GREG calibration against TOB (Taxation of Benefits) revenue targetstob_revenue_oasdi) and HI TOB (tob_revenue_medicare_hi) trust fund revenueMotivation
The baseline microsimulation shows significant deviation from SSA projections for 2025:
tob_revenue_oasditob_revenue_medicare_hiChanges
ssa_data.py: Addload_oasdi_tob_projections()andload_hi_tob_projections()calibration.py: Add TOB constraint parameters tocalibrate_gregandcalibrate_weightsrun_household_projection.py: Add--use-tobCLI flag with debug outputsocial_security_aux.csv: Cleanhi_tob_billions_nominal_usdcolumn (convert millions → billions)README.md: Document new constraint typeUsage
Test plan
--use-tobflag and verify calibration error < 0.1%Closes #459
🤖 Generated with Claude Code