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lectures/amss2.md

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@@ -88,7 +88,7 @@ import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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from scipy.optimize import fsolve, fmin
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```
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## Forces at Work
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## Forces at work
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The forces driving asymptotic outcomes here are examples of dynamics present in a more general class of incomplete markets models analyzed in {cite}`BEGS1` (BEGS).
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shutting down the stochastic component of debt dynamics.
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- At that point, the tail of the par value of government debt becomes a trivial martingale: it is constant over time.
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## Logical Flow of Lecture
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## Logical flow of lecture
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We present ideas in the following order
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- we verify that the LS Ramsey planner chooses to purchase **identical** claims to time $t+1$ consumption for all Markov states tomorrow for each Markov state today.
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* We compute the BEGS approximations to check how accurately they describe the dynamics of the long-simulation.
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### Equations from Lucas-Stokey (1983) Model
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### Equations from Lucas-Stokey (1983) model
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Although we are studying an AMSS {cite}`aiyagari2002optimal` economy, a Lucas-Stokey {cite}`LucasStokey1983` economy plays
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an important role in the reverse-engineering calculation to be described below.
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It is useful to transform some of the above equations to forms that are more natural for analyzing the
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case of a CRRA utility specification that we shall use in our example economies.
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### Specification with CRRA Utility
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### Specification with CRRA utility
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As in lectures {doc}`optimal taxation without state-contingent debt <amss>` and {doc}`optimal taxation with state-contingent debt <opt_tax_recur>`,
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we assume that the representative agent has utility function
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:load: _static/lecture_specific/amss2/crra_utility.py
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```
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## Example Economy
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## Example economy
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We set the following parameter values.
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---
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```
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## Reverse Engineering Strategy
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## Reverse engineering strategy
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We can reverse engineer a value $b_0$ of initial debt due that renders the AMSS measurability constraints not binding from time $t =0$ onward.
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**Step 7:** At the value of $\Phi$ and the value of $\bar b$ that emerged from step 6, solve equations
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{eq}`amss2_TS_barg11` and {eq}`eqn_AMSS2_10` jointly for $c_0, b_0$.
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## Code for Reverse Engineering
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## Code for reverse engineering
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Here is code to do the calculations for us.
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Thus, we have reverse engineered an initial $b0 = -1.038698407551764$ that ought to render the AMSS measurability constraints slack.
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## Short Simulation for Reverse-engineered: Initial Debt
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## Short simulation for reverse-engineered: initial debt
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The following graph shows simulations of outcomes for both a Lucas-Stokey economy and for an AMSS economy starting from initial government
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debt equal to $b_0 = -1.038698407551764$.
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However, output and labor supply are both nontrivial time-invariant functions of the Markov state.
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## Long Simulation
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## Long simulation
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The following graph shows the par value of government debt and the flat-rate tax on labor income for a long simulation for our sample economy.
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plt.show()
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```
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### Remarks about Long Simulation
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### Remarks about long simulation
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As remarked above, after $b_{t+1}(s^t)$ has converged to a constant, the measurability constraints in the AMSS model cease to bind
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We now describe how to find such an initial level of government debt.
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## BEGS Approximations of Limiting Debt and Convergence Rate
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## BEGS approximations of limiting debt and convergence rate
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It is useful to link the outcome of our reverse engineering exercise to limiting approximations constructed by BEGS {cite}`BEGS1`.
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${\mathcal R}_\tau(s, s_{-}) {\mathcal B}_{-}$, and
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- fluctuations in the effective government deficit ${\mathcal X}_t$
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### Asymptotic Mean
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### Asymptotic mean
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BEGS give conditions under which the ergodic mean of ${\mathcal B}_t$ is
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\hat b = \frac{\mathcal B^*}{\beta E_t u_{c,t+1}}
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```
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### Rate of Convergence
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### Rate of convergence
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BEGS also derive the following approximation to the rate of convergence to ${\mathcal B}^{*}$ from an arbitrary initial condition.
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(See the equation above equation (47) in {cite}`BEGS1`)
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### Formulas and Code Details
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### Formulas and code details
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For our example, we describe some code that we use to compute the steady state mean and the rate of convergence to it.
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