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lectures/amss.md

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@@ -61,7 +61,7 @@ In this lecture, we
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We begin with an introduction to the model.
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## Competitive Equilibrium with Distorting Taxes
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## Competitive equilibrium with distorting taxes
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Many but not all features of the economy are identical to those of {doc}`the Lucas-Stokey economy <opt_tax_recur>`.
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Ruling out complete markets in this way is a step in the direction of making total tax collections behave more like that prescribed in Robert Barro (1979) {cite}`Barro1979` than they do in Lucas and Stokey (1983) {cite}`LucasStokey1983`.
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### Risk-free One-Period Debt Only
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### Risk-free one-period debt only
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In period $t$ and history $s^t$, let
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Equation {eq}`TS_gov_wo4a` must hold for each $s^t$ for each $t \geq 1$.
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### Comparison with Lucas-Stokey Economy
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### Comparison with Lucas-Stokey economy
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The expression on the right side of {eq}`TS_gov_wo4a` in the Lucas-Stokey (1983) economy would equal the present value of a continuation stream of government net-of-interest surpluses evaluated at what would be competitive equilibrium Arrow-Debreu prices at date $t$.
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In a language used in the literature on incomplete markets models, it can be said that the AMSS model requires that at each $(t, s^t)$ what would be the present value of continuation government net-of-interest surpluses in the Lucas-Stokey model must belong to the **marketable subspace** of the AMSS model.
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### Ramsey Problem Without State-contingent Debt
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### Ramsey problem without state-contingent debt
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After we have substituted the resource constraint into the utility function, we can express the Ramsey problem as being to choose an allocation that solves
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given $b_0(s^{-1})$.
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#### Lagrangian Formulation
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#### Lagrangian formulation
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Let $\gamma_0(s^0)$ be a non-negative Lagrange multiplier on constraint {eq}`AMSS_44`.
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These features flow from the fact that the government cannot use state-contingent debt and therefore cannot allocate its indebtedness efficiently across future states.
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### Some Calculations
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### Some calculations
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It is helpful to apply two transformations to the Lagrangian.
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To analyze the AMSS model, we find it useful to adopt a recursive formulation
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using techniques like those in our lectures on {doc}`dynamic Stackelberg models <dyn_stack>` and {doc}`optimal taxation with state-contingent debt <opt_tax_recur>`.
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## Recursive Version of AMSS Model
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## Recursive version of AMSS model
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We now describe a recursive formulation of the AMSS economy.
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$0$ Ramsey planner and for time $t \geq 1$, history $s^t$
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continuation Ramsey planners.
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### Recasting State Variables
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### Recasting state variables
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In the AMSS setting, the government faces a sequence of budget constraints
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for $t \geq 1$.
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### Measurability Constraints
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### Measurability constraints
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Write equation {eq}`eqn:AMSSapp2` as
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Equations {eq}`eqn:AMSSapp2b` are the *measurability constraints* that the AMSS model adds to the single time $0$ implementation
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constraint imposed in the Lucas and Stokey model.
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### Two Bellman Equations
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### Two Bellman equations
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Let $\Pi(s|s_-)$ be a Markov transition matrix whose entries tell probabilities of moving from state $s_-$ to state $s$ in one period.
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u_{c,0} b_0 = u_{c,0} (n_0-g_0) - u_{l,0} n_0 + x_0
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```
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### Martingale Supercedes State-Variable Degeneracy
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### Martingale supercedes state-variable degeneracy
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Let $\mu(s|s_-) \Pi(s|s_-)$ be a Lagrange multiplier on the constraint {eq}`eqn:AMSSapp6`
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for state $s$.
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```{exercise-end}
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```
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### Absence of State Variable Degeneracy
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### Absence of state variable degeneracy
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Along a Ramsey plan, the state variable $x_t = x_t(s^t, b_0)$
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becomes a function of the history $s^t$ and initial
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This property of the AMSS model transmits a twisted martingale
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component to consumption, employment, and the tax rate.
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### Digression on Non-negative Transfers
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### Digression on non-negative transfers
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Throughout this lecture, we have imposed that transfers $T_t = 0$.
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We now turn to some examples.
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### Anticipated One-Period War
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### Anticipated one-period war
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In our lecture on {doc}`optimal taxation with state-contingent debt <opt_tax_recur>`
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we studied how the government manages uncertainty in a simple setting.
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* A war at time $t=3$ causes a permanent **increase** in the tax rate.
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* Peace at time $t=3$ causes a permanent **reduction** in the tax rate.
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#### Perpetual War Alert
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#### Perpetual war alert
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History dependence occurs more dramatically in a case in which the government
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perpetually faces the prospect of war.

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