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lectures/opt_tax_recur.md

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@@ -72,7 +72,7 @@ from numba import njit, prange, float64
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from numba.experimental import jitclass
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```
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## A Competitive Equilibrium with Distorting Taxes
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## A competitive equilibrium with distorting taxes
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At time $t \geq 0$ a random variable $s_t$ belongs to a time-invariant
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set ${\cal S} = [1, 2, \ldots, S]$.
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The **Ramsey problem** or **optimal taxation problem** is to choose a competitive
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equilibrium with distorting taxes that maximizes {eq}`TS_prefr_opt_tax`.
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### Arrow-Debreu Version of Price System
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### Arrow-Debreu version of price system
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We find it convenient sometimes to work with the Arrow-Debreu price system that is
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implied by a sequence of Arrow securities prices.
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constraints into a single intertemporal budget constraint, as we shall find it
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convenient to do below.
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### Primal Approach
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### Primal approach
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We apply a popular approach to solving a Ramsey problem, called the *primal approach*.
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1. Use the Ramsey allocation together with the formulas from step 1 to find
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taxes and prices.
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### The Implementability Constraint
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### The implementability constraint
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By sequential substitution of one one-period budget constraint {eq}`TS_bcr` into
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another, we can obtain the household's present-value budget constraint:
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subject to {eq}`TSs_cham1`.
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### Solution Details
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### Solution details
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First, define a "pseudo utility function"
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currently realized quantity of government purchases $g$ only and does
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*not* depend on the specific history that preceded that realization of $g$.
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### The Ramsey Allocation for a Given Multiplier
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### The Ramsey allocation for a given multiplier
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Temporarily take $\Phi$ as given.
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satisfied at a candidate Ramsey allocation and price system associated
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with that $\Phi$.
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### Further Specialization
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### Further specialization
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At this point, it is useful to specialize the model in the following ways.
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We maintain these assumptions throughout the remainder of this lecture.
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### Determining the Lagrange Multiplier
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### Determining the Lagrange multiplier
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We complete the Ramsey plan by computing the Lagrange multiplier $\Phi$
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on the implementability constraint {eq}`TSs_cham1`.
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equations for $S$ components each of $\vec c$, $\vec n$, and
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$\vec x$ together with $n_0, c_0$, and $\Phi$.
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### Time Inconsistency
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### Time inconsistency
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Let $\{\tau_t(s^t)\}_{t=0}^\infty, \{b_{t+1}(s_{t+1}| s^t)\}_{t=0}^\infty$
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be a time $0$, state $s_0$ Ramsey plan.
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We shall discuss this more below.
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### Specification with CRRA Utility
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### Specification with CRRA utility
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In our calculations below and in a {doc}`subsequent lecture <amss>` based on an *extension* of the Lucas-Stokey model
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by Aiyagari, Marcet, Sargent, and Seppälä (2002) {cite}`aiyagari2002optimal`, we shall modify the one-period utility function assumed above.
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\end{aligned}
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$$
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### Sequence Implementation
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### Sequence implementation
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The above steps are implemented in a class called SequentialLS
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```{code-cell} python3
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:load: _static/lecture_specific/opt_tax_recur/sequential_allocation.py
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```
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## Recursive Formulation of the Ramsey Problem
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## Recursive formulation of the Ramsey problem
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We now temporarily revert to Lucas and Stokey's specification.
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a recursive formulation of the Ramsey problem, one that records history-dependence and so is
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`backward-looking`.
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### Intertemporal Delegation
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### Intertemporal delegation
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To express a Ramsey plan recursively, we imagine that a time $0$
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Ramsey planner is followed by a sequence of continuation Ramsey planners
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obligations to implement their parts of an original Ramsey plan that had been
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designed once-and-for-all at time $0$.
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### Two Bellman Equations
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### Two Bellman equations
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After $s_t$ has been realized at time $t \geq 1$, the state
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variables confronting the time $t$ **continuation Ramsey planner** are
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We work backward by preparing a Bellman equation for
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$V(x,s)$ first, then a Bellman equation for $W(b,s)$.
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### The Continuation Ramsey Problem
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### The continuation Ramsey problem
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The Bellman equation for a time $t \geq 1$ continuation Ramsey
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planner is
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\end{aligned}
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```
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### The Ramsey Problem
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### The Ramsey problem
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The Bellman equation of the time $0$ Ramsey planner is
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consumption and leisure processes are evaluated along the original
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time $0$ Ramsey plan.
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### First-Order Conditions
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### First-order conditions
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Attach a Lagrange multiplier $\Phi_1(x,s)$ to constraint {eq}`LSA_Bellman1cons` and a
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Lagrange multiplier $\Phi_0$ to constraint {eq}`Bellman2cons`.
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Ramsey problem agree with the first-order conditions derived when we first
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formulated the Ramsey plan in the space of sequences.
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### State Variable Degeneracy
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### State variable degeneracy
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Equations {eq}`LSAenv` and {eq}`LSAx0` imply that $\Phi_0 = \Phi_1$
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and that
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for $n$ and $c$ as functions of $g$ that are associated
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with $\Phi = \Phi_0$.
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### Manifestations of Time Inconsistency
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### Manifestations of time inconsistency
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While the marginal utility adjusted level of government debt $x_t$
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is a key state variable for the continuation Ramsey planners at
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the Ramsey planner’s incentive to manipulate Arrow security prices and,
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through them, the value of initial government debt $b_0$.
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### Recursive Implementation
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### Recursive implementation
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The above steps are implemented in a class called `RecursiveLS`.
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We return to the setup with CRRA preferences described above.
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### Anticipated One-Period War
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### Anticipated one-period war
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This example illustrates in a simple setting how a Ramsey planner manages risk.
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plt.show()
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```
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### Government Saving
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### Government saving
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At time $t=0$ the government evidently *dissaves* since $b_1> b_0$.
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tax rate is set at a level that raises enough revenue to pay for government purchases and interest payments
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on its debt.
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### Time 0 Manipulation of Interest Rate
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### Time 0 manipulation of interest rate
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We have seen that when $b_0>0$, the Ramsey plan sets the time $t=0$
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tax rate partly with an eye toward lowering a risk-free interest
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By doing this, it lowers the value of time $t=0$ debt that it has inherited
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and must finance.
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### Time 0 and Time-Inconsistency
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### Time 0 and time-inconsistency
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In the preceding example, the Ramsey tax rate at time 0 differs from its value at time 1.
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The tax rates in the figure are equal for only two values of initial government debt.
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### Tax Smoothing and non-CRRA Preferences
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### Tax smoothing and non-CRRA preferences
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The complete tax smoothing for $t \geq 1$ in the preceding example is a
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consequence of our having assumed CRRA preferences.
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Instead, the government raises the tax rate when $g_t$ is high.
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### Further Comments
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### Further comments
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A {doc}`related lecture <amss>` describes an extension of the Lucas-Stokey model
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by Aiyagari, Marcet, Sargent, and Seppälä (2002) {cite}`aiyagari2002optimal`.

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